31 October 09 - Today's event at the IP ended in an ugly fashion for me. Early on, I picked up several pots being very active and making some hands. I then lost a good portion of my stack near the end of level 1 when I opened 75ss to 150 from the button and got called by the BB. The flop was 553dd, he checked, I bet 225 into 325 and he called. The turn was an offsuit 6, he checked, I bet 625, and he check-raised to 1625. Now I've played with this guy before and he's a good player, but he's also one of those "i'm gonna outplay you/i put you on AK" type of guys who won't fold easily and who do random, spastic-aggressive shit. So I decided to just call. The river bricked an offsuit J and he led for 2500. I basically called immediately and he showed 74 for a turned straight. Guess I could've found a fold on the river, but I didn't have the discipline nor did I think I was beat. I dunno .....
With a healthy dent in my stack, I fought back and built it back up to 9k-ish when I busted. At 100/200 (25a), this mid 20's dude who was clearly an internet player and super-solid--and also a guy I played with on Thursday--opened the CO to 525. In the SB, this 50's-ish white guy called. In the BB, I peeled red JJ and squeezed to 2150. I felt 90% sure the internet dude would fold, though I had no read on the older guy. But you know, if he's anything like his demographic, I don't need much of read .... So the internet dude folds pretty quickly, the SB peers over at my stack and says "what do you have left?", and I say "7200". He immediatelty says "all-in" and he has me covered. Now at this point, I had NOT planned on him 4bet shoving; I was prepared to snap-call the internet dude who might 4bet shove light b/c he thinks I'm squeezing light. But the SB is another story.
Now at this point the math/equity certainly matters, but it's gross because this guy has QQ a lot here. If he sees me 3betting light, he's going to just ship his hand instead of just call and play non A/K flops. If he shows me AK, then I should obviously be calling. Also, once I 3bet 22% of my stack, I almost always have to go with it b/c otherwise I just turned a strong hand into a bluff. But either way, I am uncomfortable here. At this point, the pot is 12,250 and I have to call off my last 7,200. Which means I'm getting 1.7:1 so I need 37% equity. Against TT+,AKs,AKo, I have 43% equity. Against QQ+,AKo,AKs, I have 36% equity so it's a super close spot. Which I basically know intuitively regardless of the math.
After agonizing a bit, and basically delaying the inevitable call, I called and he showed AKdd. Which was good for obvious reasons. The flop was Qxx ..... turn T ..... river J. Bam and I'm out. For a 100bb pot. That one really hurt and I don't think I've ever bolted out of a poker room faster in my entire life.
So that's that. Probably will be back next week ....
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Friday, October 30, 2009
Rising from the Dead
30 October 09 - I played the first event at the IP's WSOP Satellite Tournament Series yesterday. The turnout was a disappointing 133 players for the noon event, and I finished an equally disappointing 40th after getting off to a great start. I was really surprised at the disparity in turnout; recently, most of the Beau's opening events have generated large fields of 500+ while this one barely cracked 100. Odd, especially considering the IP in general looks excellent; the tournament area was laid out nicely; and the structure was good. 8k chips, 40 min levels, and 9-handed play throughout. With 9-handed tables, we spent a good amount of time playing 7 and 8-handed as the field shrunk. This is especially important because not only does it provide more overall hands to play, but it also allows you to adjust hand requirements/ranges and exploit the players who are still playing as if they were playing 9/10 handed.
My day got off to a strong start when I flopped 4's full halfway through the first level, and got paid off by 6x. ((i'm going to go through this hand below)). Awhile later, I turned the nuts with AQ on KJx when I peeled the turn and got paid on both a turn c/r and a river v-bet. Then I gave some of it back with red 88 on AK8ss. I bet the flop and turn, and was check-called by this loose, wide, aggressive, never-fold type of guy. When the third spade hit the river, he said "check", I said "set", he said "damn", and then he flipped up 53ss for a rivered flush. I guess he thought I was going to bet the end there (prob should've to get value from Ax, but this isn't the type of guy to c/call two streets when he flops an A); I guess he realized I would have likely called the river had he bet it. He is certainly not the guy you fold sets to, unless of course, you hate money.
I then got it all back from him when he opened TT UTG and I called with AQhh from the CO. The flop came AQJr and he insta-open-shipped his stack and I held for a nice pot. After that, I cooled down a bit and did a lot of folding. It was looking like I was going to be on a nice little heater all day, but unfortunately it slowed down. By 3/600, I had dribbled to 30 BBs and then lost a few key pots. I rivered the nut straight with JTo in position on a K97x8, three heart board. I inflated the pot by betting the flop after it went check-check to me, then couldn't pull the trigger on shoving the turn when I was 90% certain I was up against 2 draws or maybe 1 draw/1 weak KT-ish type hand. So I check-backed the turn, and the 8h rivered (completing the flush). After a white, middle-aged rock led into the river, and then the other white, middle-aged rock called, I begrudingly mucked my hand faceup (my 'fish' move of the day!) and they, of course, both had flushes.
Then I lost another pot soon after when I opened KJo from the CO, got called by the BB with a big stack. He checked 346r, I continued for half-pot, and he owned me with a c/r all in that I obviously folded to. With ~17 BBs at 4/800, I opened AJhh UTG and crusty, old Bert shipped ~11 BBs from the button. I wept a little bit and then called and he turned over AQo and held ... On a side note, in this kind of tourney/field, I think it's probably just better to open-ship in this exact scenario. With the way the players react to shoves, you're going to fold out so many hands (that you want folded) that would otherwise "call and see a flop" - mid pairs, random broadways, random Aces. Also, a shove of this size may even fold hands as strong as AQ/AK/JJ depending on the player, especially the old nit-rocks ... At any rate, I was finally sent packing when I open-shoved my remaining stack with QJo and ran it into AKss.
*****************************************************************************
I'm going to run through a hand, and offer some discussion along with it if anybody cares. So very early on at 25/50 with 8k stacks, I peel 44 UTG and limp. Three others limp behind, both blinds come along, and six of us see a flop of 466. Both blinds check, I lead for 125 into 300, two of the limpers fold, the button raises to 300, and both blinds fold. I vaguely "know" the guy on the button. I've played 5-10 tourneys with this guy and he always shows up to the regional circuit events and what-not. He's in his mid 30's, and plays very slowly and in my opinion, pretty damn tight. This guy does not get out of line, and he plays very cautiously. I'm not really sure how he perceives me, so I'm not going to confuse the issue trying to guess at it and complicate things.
So when he raises me on the flop, I am giving him credit for a hand. Before I decide how to respond to his raise, I want to assign a range based on my read of him, his pre-flop limp and his flop raise. So I can pretty easily give him pairs like {55-99} that he thinks are the best hand here that he wants to iso heads-up so he can play the turn/riv in position (also pretty sure he just calls with quads, so we can forget about 66 and if he does have it, well, so be it); the rest of his raising range is lots of random 6's {A6s, A6o, 86s, 76s, 76o, 65s, 65o}. Maybe even more 6's, but those are the main ones. So with all that in mind, I just call his raise because I don't want to tool out and reveal the strength of my hand.
The turn is the As and I am concerned b/c that hits his range and potentially coolers me. So I decide to check and just control the pot (yes, odd as it sounds, I am controlling the pot with a boat! i guess this might be wrong, i don't know). I basically want to control the pot here b/c I want to continue to get value from the range I beat, and minimize the damage from the range that coolers me. After I check, he bets 800 into 900 and I call pretty quickly. The river is the 8h, another card that hits his range {88, 86s} and coolers me. So now I have to decide on the best course of action here. There's 2500 in the pot, we both have less than 3 PSB's (pot sized bets) behind, so we are not considerably deep. I am not crazy about going broke here either.
With all of that said, my options on the river are: 1) bet/call; 2) check/call; 3) bet/fold (and, no I am not listing open-shoving as possibility here). I really hate line #1 because I seriously, seriously doubt this dude ever raises me here with a worse hand. Only spastic, aggressive, horrible donkeys (also known as Europeans) would raise 6x here. Line #2 is ok, it's definitely safe, but the flaw in it is that I lose value from 6x hands that check-back and that I am both lost and exploitable if he slams the riv with a big bet. So I decide on line #3. Bet and fold if he raises me. Which I'm realllllllly hoping doesn't happen. So I lead for 1200 into 2500 because this seems like the best size to get value from 6x (people, even good players, do NOT like to ever fold trips); if he raises me, I guess I'm moving forward with my plan of folding. Predictably, he doesn't do anything fast. After about 2 agonizing minutes, I figure I'm good and he just calls. I say "boat", he says "you're good", and then shows the 6d as he mucks. Interesting hand. Any thoughts? And for the record, I will be on the lookout for any of you out there trying to bluff me off a boat!
I also wanted to discuss playing/betting/getting value from big hands and balancing that with deception. But this post is long enough, so I'll save that topic for another time. Good luck to everyone out there playing the IP.
Oh yeah ...
Who Dat!?!
My day got off to a strong start when I flopped 4's full halfway through the first level, and got paid off by 6x. ((i'm going to go through this hand below)). Awhile later, I turned the nuts with AQ on KJx when I peeled the turn and got paid on both a turn c/r and a river v-bet. Then I gave some of it back with red 88 on AK8ss. I bet the flop and turn, and was check-called by this loose, wide, aggressive, never-fold type of guy. When the third spade hit the river, he said "check", I said "set", he said "damn", and then he flipped up 53ss for a rivered flush. I guess he thought I was going to bet the end there (prob should've to get value from Ax, but this isn't the type of guy to c/call two streets when he flops an A); I guess he realized I would have likely called the river had he bet it. He is certainly not the guy you fold sets to, unless of course, you hate money.
I then got it all back from him when he opened TT UTG and I called with AQhh from the CO. The flop came AQJr and he insta-open-shipped his stack and I held for a nice pot. After that, I cooled down a bit and did a lot of folding. It was looking like I was going to be on a nice little heater all day, but unfortunately it slowed down. By 3/600, I had dribbled to 30 BBs and then lost a few key pots. I rivered the nut straight with JTo in position on a K97x8, three heart board. I inflated the pot by betting the flop after it went check-check to me, then couldn't pull the trigger on shoving the turn when I was 90% certain I was up against 2 draws or maybe 1 draw/1 weak KT-ish type hand. So I check-backed the turn, and the 8h rivered (completing the flush). After a white, middle-aged rock led into the river, and then the other white, middle-aged rock called, I begrudingly mucked my hand faceup (my 'fish' move of the day!) and they, of course, both had flushes.
Then I lost another pot soon after when I opened KJo from the CO, got called by the BB with a big stack. He checked 346r, I continued for half-pot, and he owned me with a c/r all in that I obviously folded to. With ~17 BBs at 4/800, I opened AJhh UTG and crusty, old Bert shipped ~11 BBs from the button. I wept a little bit and then called and he turned over AQo and held ... On a side note, in this kind of tourney/field, I think it's probably just better to open-ship in this exact scenario. With the way the players react to shoves, you're going to fold out so many hands (that you want folded) that would otherwise "call and see a flop" - mid pairs, random broadways, random Aces. Also, a shove of this size may even fold hands as strong as AQ/AK/JJ depending on the player, especially the old nit-rocks ... At any rate, I was finally sent packing when I open-shoved my remaining stack with QJo and ran it into AKss.
*****************************************************************************
I'm going to run through a hand, and offer some discussion along with it if anybody cares. So very early on at 25/50 with 8k stacks, I peel 44 UTG and limp. Three others limp behind, both blinds come along, and six of us see a flop of 466. Both blinds check, I lead for 125 into 300, two of the limpers fold, the button raises to 300, and both blinds fold. I vaguely "know" the guy on the button. I've played 5-10 tourneys with this guy and he always shows up to the regional circuit events and what-not. He's in his mid 30's, and plays very slowly and in my opinion, pretty damn tight. This guy does not get out of line, and he plays very cautiously. I'm not really sure how he perceives me, so I'm not going to confuse the issue trying to guess at it and complicate things.
So when he raises me on the flop, I am giving him credit for a hand. Before I decide how to respond to his raise, I want to assign a range based on my read of him, his pre-flop limp and his flop raise. So I can pretty easily give him pairs like {55-99} that he thinks are the best hand here that he wants to iso heads-up so he can play the turn/riv in position (also pretty sure he just calls with quads, so we can forget about 66 and if he does have it, well, so be it); the rest of his raising range is lots of random 6's {A6s, A6o, 86s, 76s, 76o, 65s, 65o}. Maybe even more 6's, but those are the main ones. So with all that in mind, I just call his raise because I don't want to tool out and reveal the strength of my hand.
The turn is the As and I am concerned b/c that hits his range and potentially coolers me. So I decide to check and just control the pot (yes, odd as it sounds, I am controlling the pot with a boat! i guess this might be wrong, i don't know). I basically want to control the pot here b/c I want to continue to get value from the range I beat, and minimize the damage from the range that coolers me. After I check, he bets 800 into 900 and I call pretty quickly. The river is the 8h, another card that hits his range {88, 86s} and coolers me. So now I have to decide on the best course of action here. There's 2500 in the pot, we both have less than 3 PSB's (pot sized bets) behind, so we are not considerably deep. I am not crazy about going broke here either.
With all of that said, my options on the river are: 1) bet/call; 2) check/call; 3) bet/fold (and, no I am not listing open-shoving as possibility here). I really hate line #1 because I seriously, seriously doubt this dude ever raises me here with a worse hand. Only spastic, aggressive, horrible donkeys (also known as Europeans) would raise 6x here. Line #2 is ok, it's definitely safe, but the flaw in it is that I lose value from 6x hands that check-back and that I am both lost and exploitable if he slams the riv with a big bet. So I decide on line #3. Bet and fold if he raises me. Which I'm realllllllly hoping doesn't happen. So I lead for 1200 into 2500 because this seems like the best size to get value from 6x (people, even good players, do NOT like to ever fold trips); if he raises me, I guess I'm moving forward with my plan of folding. Predictably, he doesn't do anything fast. After about 2 agonizing minutes, I figure I'm good and he just calls. I say "boat", he says "you're good", and then shows the 6d as he mucks. Interesting hand. Any thoughts? And for the record, I will be on the lookout for any of you out there trying to bluff me off a boat!
I also wanted to discuss playing/betting/getting value from big hands and balancing that with deception. But this post is long enough, so I'll save that topic for another time. Good luck to everyone out there playing the IP.
Oh yeah ...
Who Dat!?!
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Lunatic Fringe
16 September 09 - My form on SharkScope is listed as "Super Tilt". Luckily, it makes me laugh. But scarily, it doesn't factor in my live results. I haven't won a damn thing for three straight months, online or live. In fact, I've barely cashed anything. In the grand scheme of things, three months is a short period of time and I know the brutality can last much, much longer. But for the first time in my life, the wicked wrath of Saint Variance is making me certifiably daft. I'm on the precipice of insanity. I shaved my hair into a mohawk. I'm in the fast lane of a torturous, warped, endless highway where the bugs are crawling in my eyes, and the beats are coming at me from all angles, and I can't win to save my fucking life, and the madness is pervasive and ubiquitous, and the antidotes are placebos, and the remedies are elusive, and ahhhhhhhhhhhh.......... Tiiiiiiiiillllllllllllllllllllllllltttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And the lunacy prevails. But the downswing can't. And in the meantime, my bankroll trend looks like a demented, vomit-inducing roller coaster designed by some crazed acid freak in the midst of a Bret Easton Ellis-inspired, month-long bender.
Tequila, anyone?
And the lunacy prevails. But the downswing can't. And in the meantime, my bankroll trend looks like a demented, vomit-inducing roller coaster designed by some crazed acid freak in the midst of a Bret Easton Ellis-inspired, month-long bender.
Tequila, anyone?
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Dorking It Up
26 August 09 - I've been feeling semi-guilty for not posting any poker content recently, but nothing has seemed interesting or worthy, and I'm not going to post some nonsensical drivel just for the sake of posting. With that said, I played an interesting hand this weekend that I recently discussed with a buddy and thought it would be worthy of review here.
Disclaimer: I'm about to seriously dork it up with math and everything and this is going to be long and detailed, so be forewarned. I felt like indulging the readers of GCP with some serious mathed-out dorkness in a hand that I found to be most interesting. Enjoy.
25/50, about 20 minutes into the first 30 minute level of the Saturday guarantee at the Beau this past weekend. I haven't yet played a hand. From MP2, I open black JJ to 150. The button calls and both blinds come along. Pot 600.
The flop is 732, all diamonds. Both blinds check, I pot it for 600 (which may or may not be the best sizing, but that's for another day). The button min-raises to 1200 and both blinds fold. I peripherally know the dude on the button; he's in his mid 50's, he plays in the big cash games at the Beau, and I view him as basically straightforward, basically tight, and maybe even semi-fishy. He also knows me and talks to me from time to time. I'm pretty sure he sees me as a tight player.
So first things first. What do we think of his range? What do we think his min-raise means? His range is kinda wide here and can include {sets 77, 33, 22}, {small/mid flushes}, {Aces/broadways with one diamond}, {overpairs to the board with one diamond}, but probably not the nut flush. The main consideration in narrowing his range is to interpret what exactly the min-raise means. Why is he min-raising me?
So the pot is now 2400 and my options are to call 600, shove for his last 3850 (I have him covered), or just muck. Folding seems weak, if not absurd, but it's probably not out of the question either. Calling seems easy b/c I have an overpair and I'm getting 4:1, but how am I going to handle various turns OOP when there are an assload of bad turn cards for my hand? Shoving seems weird because when we get called, our equity is trash. And it seems like hands that raise this flop won't fold too often to a 3bet shove. But maybe the min-raise is informational in nature and he is giving himself room to fold (leaving himself a still playable stack) if I indeed 3bet shove. Finally the min-raise could be inducive in nature, specifically meaning that he is giving me the illusion that he will fold to a shove and is thus inducing me to shove on him because he has a big hand. Again, the main consideration among all this nonsense is simply our read of the opponent. What does he most likely have, why is he taking this course of action, and what does it mean in relation to our hand?
Before I continue on with my decision in the hand, let's look at what happens if we decide to shove the black JJ. What do you think intuitively? Here's what the math tells us:
After he min-raises, the pot is 2400 and he has 3850 behind. So if I shove, I'm contributing 600 (calling his raise) + 3850 (his remaining stack). If he calls it off, the total pot will be 10,700. So we are risking 4450 to win 10,700 which means we have 41.5% equity in the pot, so we need just about 42% equity vs. his range to make it +cEV long-term. If he calls our shove with a range consisting of {sets}, {lots of flushes}, {overpairs TT+ with a lone diamond, but excluding AA/KK} (doesn't he 3bet these pre most of the time?), and {AKo/AQo combos with a lone diamond} then our equity vs. that stated range is 21.6%. Which is nowhere near close to the 41% stake we own in the pot now. So it's bad, which we probably already know intuitively. If we shove here and get called, we're really fucked ... But we haven't factored in our expectation for the times he folds to our shove. Remember that the min-raise might mean he folds to a shove. So let's get a complete expectation of what happens when we shove because he's not calling our shove 100% of the time. Sometimes he folds and we win the pot, and that's a good result, but does it happen often enough to compensate for the times we're called and wayyyyyy behind?
Hang in there, it's about to get dorkier. So to figure out our expectation when we shove, we need to determine:
1. His raising range on the flop - specifically what overall percentage of hands this represents
2. His shove-calling range - specifically what overall percentage of hands this represents
3. The percentage of times he calls our shove; the percentage of times he folds to our shove
4. Our hand's equity vs. his shove-calling range; his range's equity vs our hand
So for (1), his raising range is likely to include {sets}, {lots of non-nut flushes} (against said opponent, i think he just calls the flop and then moves on the turn with the nut flush the vast majority of the time), {lots of overpairs to the board}, and {lots of broadways and big aces with a lone diamond}. This range equates to 5.1% of all hands. For (2), his shove-calling range is what we listed above and that equates to 3.8% of hands. So for (3), this means that he calls our shove 74.5% of the time and folds to our shove 25.5% of the time. For (4), again as stated above, our hand has 21.6% equity against his shove-calling range. Which means that his range's equity vs. our hand is 78.3%. So to complete the calculations of our EV...
>> 2400 [the pot we win when he folds to our shove] * .255 [%age of times he folds to our shove] = +612
>> ((6250 [the amount we net when we shove, he calls, we win] * .745 [%age of times he calls us]) * .216 [our equity vs his shove-calling range])) = +1006
>> ((3850 [the amount we lose when we shove, he calls, we lose] * .745 [%age of times he calls us] * .783 [his range's equity vs. our hand])) = -2246
(+612) + (+1066) + (-2246) = -568. So we can see this is a MASSIVELY -cEV decison to 3bet shove black JJ on the flop. Which, again, we already knew intuitively. If you happen to still be reading this, I know what you're saying. "You just did all of that bullshit to realize that it's bad to shove there?" Well, yes I did. But that's not the point. The real point is that there's an empirical way to solve the problem and when spots are close, this really really helps... And I did this for another reason, which you'll see later on...
***************************************************************************
Back to the hand. I just called the min-raise (of course I wasn't 3bet donk-shoving there!). The pot is now 3000. Again, he has 3850 behind and I have him covered. The turn pairs the board with a black 3 and I check to him. He smacks the pot for 2500 ... What do I do now, and what have we learned about his hand range with all of the information we've accumulated thus far? We know he's called a raise in position PF, min-raised the flop, and smacked the turn. How do we narrow his range from this set of circumstances? First of all, I'm now confident in eliminating sets from his range. If he had a set on the flop, doesn't he raise more to protect his hand from another diamond coming off? Further, doesn't he either check-back his now made boat on the turn or at least bet smaller? Second, I think we can mostly eliminate big Aces/broadways with a lone diamond because doesn't he usually check-back and take the free draw? Remember, he knows I have some sort of hand at this point. So third, what does he smack the turn with? Likely, either {non nut flushes} or {overpairs 88-QQ with a lone diamond}. Can we narrow it even further? I think so. We can probably take the {non-nut flushes} out his range due to his bet sizing on the flop. Doesn't he raise more to protect his hand there? I think he does.
So taking into account his entire possible range based on my reads, and then narrowing based on his flop/turn actions, it looks most like {88-QQ with a lone diamond}. PF, he's mostly 3betting KK/AA so I'm eliminating those from his range. On the flop he's "seeing where he's at" with the min-raise. Now that I passively called the flop, he think he's ahead. So when the turn basically bricks, he smacks the pot to now protect his hand. Likely, he thinks I have AK/AQ with a diamond and he's trying to win the pot now. And betting 2500 instead of shoving his remaining stack looks much stronger. If he thinks shoving the turn might appear weak, then he takes the risk of getting called lighter. Which if he has a marginal strength hand, he doesn't want to have happen. All of this reinforces his range to be {88-QQ with a lone diamond}. It's a vulnerable hand to AK with a diamond, but he wants it to look strong so I'll go away.
So now when he bets 2500, the pot is 5500 and he has 1350 behind. If I decide to shove now, I'm shoving 3850 to win 10,700. Which means I now only need greater than 36% equity vs. his hand range to make it a profitable play. Obviously, he never folds when we shove here. But if our now-improved read of his hand range is correct, then we have 60% equity vs that range. Which, oddly enough, means shoving is hugely profitable now. Remember all that math before? It told us that shoving the flop was massively unprofitable. But with what we've learned, 3bet shoving the turn--even with no fold equity factored in--is still very profitable. Again, this is all dependent on our reads and range assignments. But if those are close to accurate, then the decision is clear cut on both the flop and turn.
In the actual hand, I folded the turn. Obviously all of this analysis is impossible during a hand... I decided at the time, it was a bad spot to continue especially considering it was still the first level of the tournament. But after going through all of this with a buddy (thanks Phillip), I have a different opinion now. I found it especially interesting that shoving the flop was terrible, but that shoving the turn was probably good. Weird.
If you read all of this, congrats and I'm sorry.
Later.
Disclaimer: I'm about to seriously dork it up with math and everything and this is going to be long and detailed, so be forewarned. I felt like indulging the readers of GCP with some serious mathed-out dorkness in a hand that I found to be most interesting. Enjoy.
25/50, about 20 minutes into the first 30 minute level of the Saturday guarantee at the Beau this past weekend. I haven't yet played a hand. From MP2, I open black JJ to 150. The button calls and both blinds come along. Pot 600.
The flop is 732, all diamonds. Both blinds check, I pot it for 600 (which may or may not be the best sizing, but that's for another day). The button min-raises to 1200 and both blinds fold. I peripherally know the dude on the button; he's in his mid 50's, he plays in the big cash games at the Beau, and I view him as basically straightforward, basically tight, and maybe even semi-fishy. He also knows me and talks to me from time to time. I'm pretty sure he sees me as a tight player.
So first things first. What do we think of his range? What do we think his min-raise means? His range is kinda wide here and can include {sets 77, 33, 22}, {small/mid flushes}, {Aces/broadways with one diamond}, {overpairs to the board with one diamond}, but probably not the nut flush. The main consideration in narrowing his range is to interpret what exactly the min-raise means. Why is he min-raising me?
So the pot is now 2400 and my options are to call 600, shove for his last 3850 (I have him covered), or just muck. Folding seems weak, if not absurd, but it's probably not out of the question either. Calling seems easy b/c I have an overpair and I'm getting 4:1, but how am I going to handle various turns OOP when there are an assload of bad turn cards for my hand? Shoving seems weird because when we get called, our equity is trash. And it seems like hands that raise this flop won't fold too often to a 3bet shove. But maybe the min-raise is informational in nature and he is giving himself room to fold (leaving himself a still playable stack) if I indeed 3bet shove. Finally the min-raise could be inducive in nature, specifically meaning that he is giving me the illusion that he will fold to a shove and is thus inducing me to shove on him because he has a big hand. Again, the main consideration among all this nonsense is simply our read of the opponent. What does he most likely have, why is he taking this course of action, and what does it mean in relation to our hand?
Before I continue on with my decision in the hand, let's look at what happens if we decide to shove the black JJ. What do you think intuitively? Here's what the math tells us:
After he min-raises, the pot is 2400 and he has 3850 behind. So if I shove, I'm contributing 600 (calling his raise) + 3850 (his remaining stack). If he calls it off, the total pot will be 10,700. So we are risking 4450 to win 10,700 which means we have 41.5% equity in the pot, so we need just about 42% equity vs. his range to make it +cEV long-term. If he calls our shove with a range consisting of {sets}, {lots of flushes}, {overpairs TT+ with a lone diamond, but excluding AA/KK} (doesn't he 3bet these pre most of the time?), and {AKo/AQo combos with a lone diamond} then our equity vs. that stated range is 21.6%. Which is nowhere near close to the 41% stake we own in the pot now. So it's bad, which we probably already know intuitively. If we shove here and get called, we're really fucked ... But we haven't factored in our expectation for the times he folds to our shove. Remember that the min-raise might mean he folds to a shove. So let's get a complete expectation of what happens when we shove because he's not calling our shove 100% of the time. Sometimes he folds and we win the pot, and that's a good result, but does it happen often enough to compensate for the times we're called and wayyyyyy behind?
Hang in there, it's about to get dorkier. So to figure out our expectation when we shove, we need to determine:
1. His raising range on the flop - specifically what overall percentage of hands this represents
2. His shove-calling range - specifically what overall percentage of hands this represents
3. The percentage of times he calls our shove; the percentage of times he folds to our shove
4. Our hand's equity vs. his shove-calling range; his range's equity vs our hand
So for (1), his raising range is likely to include {sets}, {lots of non-nut flushes} (against said opponent, i think he just calls the flop and then moves on the turn with the nut flush the vast majority of the time), {lots of overpairs to the board}, and {lots of broadways and big aces with a lone diamond}. This range equates to 5.1% of all hands. For (2), his shove-calling range is what we listed above and that equates to 3.8% of hands. So for (3), this means that he calls our shove 74.5% of the time and folds to our shove 25.5% of the time. For (4), again as stated above, our hand has 21.6% equity against his shove-calling range. Which means that his range's equity vs. our hand is 78.3%. So to complete the calculations of our EV...
>> 2400 [the pot we win when he folds to our shove] * .255 [%age of times he folds to our shove] = +612
>> ((6250 [the amount we net when we shove, he calls, we win] * .745 [%age of times he calls us]) * .216 [our equity vs his shove-calling range])) = +1006
>> ((3850 [the amount we lose when we shove, he calls, we lose] * .745 [%age of times he calls us] * .783 [his range's equity vs. our hand])) = -2246
(+612) + (+1066) + (-2246) = -568. So we can see this is a MASSIVELY -cEV decison to 3bet shove black JJ on the flop. Which, again, we already knew intuitively. If you happen to still be reading this, I know what you're saying. "You just did all of that bullshit to realize that it's bad to shove there?" Well, yes I did. But that's not the point. The real point is that there's an empirical way to solve the problem and when spots are close, this really really helps... And I did this for another reason, which you'll see later on...
***************************************************************************
Back to the hand. I just called the min-raise (of course I wasn't 3bet donk-shoving there!). The pot is now 3000. Again, he has 3850 behind and I have him covered. The turn pairs the board with a black 3 and I check to him. He smacks the pot for 2500 ... What do I do now, and what have we learned about his hand range with all of the information we've accumulated thus far? We know he's called a raise in position PF, min-raised the flop, and smacked the turn. How do we narrow his range from this set of circumstances? First of all, I'm now confident in eliminating sets from his range. If he had a set on the flop, doesn't he raise more to protect his hand from another diamond coming off? Further, doesn't he either check-back his now made boat on the turn or at least bet smaller? Second, I think we can mostly eliminate big Aces/broadways with a lone diamond because doesn't he usually check-back and take the free draw? Remember, he knows I have some sort of hand at this point. So third, what does he smack the turn with? Likely, either {non nut flushes} or {overpairs 88-QQ with a lone diamond}. Can we narrow it even further? I think so. We can probably take the {non-nut flushes} out his range due to his bet sizing on the flop. Doesn't he raise more to protect his hand there? I think he does.
So taking into account his entire possible range based on my reads, and then narrowing based on his flop/turn actions, it looks most like {88-QQ with a lone diamond}. PF, he's mostly 3betting KK/AA so I'm eliminating those from his range. On the flop he's "seeing where he's at" with the min-raise. Now that I passively called the flop, he think he's ahead. So when the turn basically bricks, he smacks the pot to now protect his hand. Likely, he thinks I have AK/AQ with a diamond and he's trying to win the pot now. And betting 2500 instead of shoving his remaining stack looks much stronger. If he thinks shoving the turn might appear weak, then he takes the risk of getting called lighter. Which if he has a marginal strength hand, he doesn't want to have happen. All of this reinforces his range to be {88-QQ with a lone diamond}. It's a vulnerable hand to AK with a diamond, but he wants it to look strong so I'll go away.
So now when he bets 2500, the pot is 5500 and he has 1350 behind. If I decide to shove now, I'm shoving 3850 to win 10,700. Which means I now only need greater than 36% equity vs. his hand range to make it a profitable play. Obviously, he never folds when we shove here. But if our now-improved read of his hand range is correct, then we have 60% equity vs that range. Which, oddly enough, means shoving is hugely profitable now. Remember all that math before? It told us that shoving the flop was massively unprofitable. But with what we've learned, 3bet shoving the turn--even with no fold equity factored in--is still very profitable. Again, this is all dependent on our reads and range assignments. But if those are close to accurate, then the decision is clear cut on both the flop and turn.
In the actual hand, I folded the turn. Obviously all of this analysis is impossible during a hand... I decided at the time, it was a bad spot to continue especially considering it was still the first level of the tournament. But after going through all of this with a buddy (thanks Phillip), I have a different opinion now. I found it especially interesting that shoving the flop was terrible, but that shoving the turn was probably good. Weird.
If you read all of this, congrats and I'm sorry.
Later.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Airball
2 Aug 09 - Well, I airballed the $20k at the Beau yesterday. There was a pretty solid turnout of 85-ish players and 1st place was a healthy $7,700. I felt really good going into the tournament yesterday, but it didn't work out...
I literally played 6 hands in 5 levels. I played AKdd at 50/100, 3bet an MP open from the button, c-bet an all-black flop that I completely whiffed, checked back the turn, and folded to a lead OTR. From there, I folded everything for 2 levels because it was just completely unplayable, as was my awkward stack. Finally with my stack vacillating in the 10-13 bb threshold, and with antes in play, I went into shove mode and it worked great. I shipped over a few limpers with A2ss; I open-shoved TT; and I open-shoved from the CO with A4o. Then finally, I shoved 99 from the CO and the BB, this mid-50's dude who was apparently worn-down from many years at the poker table, who was playing predictably tight and also periodically weak, looks down at his cards and starts agonizing. After some deliberation, he folds AJss faceup and says "you can have it, buddy." Which leads me to...
Having played so many hands online over the last two months, I made a mental note prior to the trny to adjust the volatility meter in the proper spots. I don't really feel like elucidating the minutiae of this point, but I basically mean that in some spots you have to play more aggressively than you might online, and in some spots you have to play less aggressively than you normally would. Different 'norms' prevail, and your spot-specific optimal play will vary depending on the medium. So in this trny for example, open-shoving 10-13 bbs is so hugely profitable because no one will call with anything except for the absolute PEAK of their range. I mean, you're basically getting called by TT+, AQo+ mayyyyybe. It's crazy how much (gasp!) fold equity (just for you, Kai!) one can flex. That's all I have to say about that...
So back on point, I built my stack back to ~22bbs when I busted. Dude to my right who may or may not have been a clown, open-shoved ~14bbs UTG. UTG+1, I looked down at JJ and re-shoved my stack. Unfortunately, the button called both shoves with AKo, flopped a K, and that was that (UTG shover had J8dd). It was a standard outcome in an otherwise non-descript day.
I'll be back for the Gulf Coast Poker Championships in September, and until then I'll be banging out as many hands as possible online. Good luck and thanks for reading.
I literally played 6 hands in 5 levels. I played AKdd at 50/100, 3bet an MP open from the button, c-bet an all-black flop that I completely whiffed, checked back the turn, and folded to a lead OTR. From there, I folded everything for 2 levels because it was just completely unplayable, as was my awkward stack. Finally with my stack vacillating in the 10-13 bb threshold, and with antes in play, I went into shove mode and it worked great. I shipped over a few limpers with A2ss; I open-shoved TT; and I open-shoved from the CO with A4o. Then finally, I shoved 99 from the CO and the BB, this mid-50's dude who was apparently worn-down from many years at the poker table, who was playing predictably tight and also periodically weak, looks down at his cards and starts agonizing. After some deliberation, he folds AJss faceup and says "you can have it, buddy." Which leads me to...
Having played so many hands online over the last two months, I made a mental note prior to the trny to adjust the volatility meter in the proper spots. I don't really feel like elucidating the minutiae of this point, but I basically mean that in some spots you have to play more aggressively than you might online, and in some spots you have to play less aggressively than you normally would. Different 'norms' prevail, and your spot-specific optimal play will vary depending on the medium. So in this trny for example, open-shoving 10-13 bbs is so hugely profitable because no one will call with anything except for the absolute PEAK of their range. I mean, you're basically getting called by TT+, AQo+ mayyyyybe. It's crazy how much (gasp!) fold equity (just for you, Kai!) one can flex. That's all I have to say about that...
So back on point, I built my stack back to ~22bbs when I busted. Dude to my right who may or may not have been a clown, open-shoved ~14bbs UTG. UTG+1, I looked down at JJ and re-shoved my stack. Unfortunately, the button called both shoves with AKo, flopped a K, and that was that (UTG shover had J8dd). It was a standard outcome in an otherwise non-descript day.
I'll be back for the Gulf Coast Poker Championships in September, and until then I'll be banging out as many hands as possible online. Good luck and thanks for reading.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
WSOP Television Coverage
28 July 09 - ESPN's coverage of the 2009 WSOP starts tonight from 7p-9p CST. The $40k NLHE event is being broadcast. Should be an interesting watch.
Nothing much else to report on. I've been playing tons of hands online. I had a pretty brutal weekend but it's really no big deal. The main consideration is volume and I'm pleased with the amount I've been putting in.
I'm planning to be at the Beau on Sat for the $20k. Really looking forward to that. Hope to see a big turnout.
Later.
Nothing much else to report on. I've been playing tons of hands online. I had a pretty brutal weekend but it's really no big deal. The main consideration is volume and I'm pleased with the amount I've been putting in.
I'm planning to be at the Beau on Sat for the $20k. Really looking forward to that. Hope to see a big turnout.
Later.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
November 9 Predictions
15 July 09 - The main event at the WSOP is down to the final 27. They'll be playing down to the final table today which, for the second year in a row, will be delayed and played in November. So here's a stab at what I think/hope the November 9 will look like this year:
Phil Ivey: goes into today 4th in chips and will be seated to the left of the chipleader, Darvin Moon. It might be a very long day for Mr. Moon as Ivey will certainly be targeting the amateur's stack all day long. Ivey, universally regarded as the best poker player in the world, seems destined to cement his legacy this year.
Jeff Shulman: he is co-owner of CardPlayer with his father, Barry. Jeff was famously bad-beat/coolered from the 2000 WSOP main event final table by eventual champion Chris "Jesus" Ferguson. In that event, 7-handed with the chip lead, Jeff got Jesus (who was 2nd in chips at the time) all-in with 77 vs 66 and Ferguson flopped a set to stay alive. Shortly after, Schulman ran KK into Ferguson's AA and was sent packing. Here's to hoping that Shulman gets a shot at redemption.
Darvin Moon: the chipleader going into today, Moon is an amateur from Maryland who won his way in through satellite. His is the quintessential WSOP "rags to riches" story. It's also noteworthy that Moon has been sporting a Saints hat all week long. That makes him "root-worthy" in my book.
Antonio Esfandiari: semi-famous poker professional and poker celebrity, Esfandiari would make for an interesting and entertaining final table with his established credentials, loose-aggressive style and outgoing personality.
Billy Kopp: an online professional, Kopp enters the day second in chips and seems poised to make a run at the title. His appearance at the final table would raise the profile of online poker as the ultimate training ground for success in large field, deep-stacked MTT.
Andrew Lichtenberger: maybe the most highly regarded online professional remaining in the field, the young math wizard has been running hot in 2009 and has an excellent chance to make the final 9. On day 6, this humorous exchange was recorded between Lichtenberger and Ivey in one hand:
Andrew Lichtenberger: "If I wear my hat backwards, will it make me look like a badass?"
Phil Ivey: "... Nothing you do will make you look badass."
James Akenhead: the young, London native has been hovering at the top of the leaderboard all week, has a slew of live cashes to his name, and looks to make his second WSOP final table appearance in as many years. He is poised to eclispse the $1,000,000 benchmark in career cashes with his run in this year's WSOP main event.
Ludovic Lacay: I don't know too much about him except for the fact that is considered one of the top 5 French poker players today. His appearance at the final table would continue to grow the game in Europe and keep the international poker economy flush with new $$$.
Leo Margets: obviously a long shot with her very short stack, Ms. Margets is the last remaining woman in the field. As poker continues to attract new demographics, the apperance of a woman at the final table would be great for poker and great for television. Let's hope the attractive, young Spaniard makes it there.
Disclaimer: I actually believe that either Ben Lamb or Jordan Smith will make the final table instead of Margets, but I'm rooting for her.
Edit: I got 4 of 9 correct - Ivey, Shulman, Moon, Akenhead.
Phil Ivey: goes into today 4th in chips and will be seated to the left of the chipleader, Darvin Moon. It might be a very long day for Mr. Moon as Ivey will certainly be targeting the amateur's stack all day long. Ivey, universally regarded as the best poker player in the world, seems destined to cement his legacy this year.
Jeff Shulman: he is co-owner of CardPlayer with his father, Barry. Jeff was famously bad-beat/coolered from the 2000 WSOP main event final table by eventual champion Chris "Jesus" Ferguson. In that event, 7-handed with the chip lead, Jeff got Jesus (who was 2nd in chips at the time) all-in with 77 vs 66 and Ferguson flopped a set to stay alive. Shortly after, Schulman ran KK into Ferguson's AA and was sent packing. Here's to hoping that Shulman gets a shot at redemption.
Darvin Moon: the chipleader going into today, Moon is an amateur from Maryland who won his way in through satellite. His is the quintessential WSOP "rags to riches" story. It's also noteworthy that Moon has been sporting a Saints hat all week long. That makes him "root-worthy" in my book.
Antonio Esfandiari: semi-famous poker professional and poker celebrity, Esfandiari would make for an interesting and entertaining final table with his established credentials, loose-aggressive style and outgoing personality.
Billy Kopp: an online professional, Kopp enters the day second in chips and seems poised to make a run at the title. His appearance at the final table would raise the profile of online poker as the ultimate training ground for success in large field, deep-stacked MTT.
Andrew Lichtenberger: maybe the most highly regarded online professional remaining in the field, the young math wizard has been running hot in 2009 and has an excellent chance to make the final 9. On day 6, this humorous exchange was recorded between Lichtenberger and Ivey in one hand:
Andrew Lichtenberger: "If I wear my hat backwards, will it make me look like a badass?"
Phil Ivey: "... Nothing you do will make you look badass."
James Akenhead: the young, London native has been hovering at the top of the leaderboard all week, has a slew of live cashes to his name, and looks to make his second WSOP final table appearance in as many years. He is poised to eclispse the $1,000,000 benchmark in career cashes with his run in this year's WSOP main event.
Ludovic Lacay: I don't know too much about him except for the fact that is considered one of the top 5 French poker players today. His appearance at the final table would continue to grow the game in Europe and keep the international poker economy flush with new $$$.
Leo Margets: obviously a long shot with her very short stack, Ms. Margets is the last remaining woman in the field. As poker continues to attract new demographics, the apperance of a woman at the final table would be great for poker and great for television. Let's hope the attractive, young Spaniard makes it there.
Disclaimer: I actually believe that either Ben Lamb or Jordan Smith will make the final table instead of Margets, but I'm rooting for her.
Edit: I got 4 of 9 correct - Ivey, Shulman, Moon, Akenhead.
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